The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2026.06.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1383
• Prev. Close: 1.1358
• % chg. over the last day: -0.22%

On Wednesday, EUR/USD fell by 0.22%, updating a yearly low under pressure from a strong US dollar and lingering effects of Christine Lagarde’s earlier “dovish” remarks, in which she ruled out the need for an aggressive ECB response to the Middle East crisis. However, the euro managed to partially recover intraday losses and rebound after the decline thanks to the hawkish rhetoric of ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, who openly stated the need for further rate hikes to return inflation to the 2% target. Additional support for the euro came from positive macroeconomic news out of Germany, where the key IFO business climate Index unexpectedly rose from 85.0 to 85.6 in June, beating analyst expectations and easing fears of a deep recession in the Eurozone’s industrial core.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1279
• Resistance levels: 1.1369, 1.1452, 1.1415, 1.1488, 1.1523, 1.1559

The situation has not changed much compared to yesterday. The euro continues to weaken against the US dollar. The price consolidated below the daily support level of 1.1369, increasing the likelihood of further decline toward 1.1279. The MACD divergence indicates fading downside momentum, but the correction lacks strong impulsive moves, signaling the absence of a major buyer. Under such market conditions, sell trades are considered from 1.1369 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For buy trades, a sharp bullish impulse with consolidation above 1.1369 is required.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1279
• Res: 1.1369
• Note: Sell trades from 1.1369 or EMA lines with confirmation. Buy trades require a strong bullish impulse with consolidation above 1.1369.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3200
• Prev. Close: 1.3166
• % chg. over the last day: -0.25 %

On Wednesday, the British pound broke key support and fell below 1.32 USD, approaching its lowest level in seven months amid a sharp global strengthening of the US dollar. On one hand, investors welcomed signs of rapid stabilization within the ruling Labour Party: after Keir Starmer’s resignation announcement, Andy Burnham became the frontrunner for prime minister. On the other hand, this political optimism is overshadowed by troubling economic signals that reinforce recession fears. This stalemate significantly ties the Bank of England’s hands, forcing the regulator to maintain tight policy despite a cooling economy – a combination that will continue to pressure the pound amid the dollar rally.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3126, 1.3093
• Resistance levels: 1.3184, 1.3251, 1.3327, 1.3390

The British pound consolidated below the key level of 1.3184, increasing the likelihood of further decline toward 1.3126. The MACD divergence triggered a minor correction, but sellers still hold the initiative. Under such market conditions, intraday sell trades are appropriate from 1.3184 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For buy trades, a strong bullish impulse with consolidation above 1.3184 is required.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3126
• Res: 1.3184
• Note: Sell trades from 1.3184 or EMA lines with confirmation. Buy trades require consolidation above 1.3184.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 161.50
• Prev. Close: 161.79
• % chg. over the last day: +0.18%

A speech by Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura in Kobe signaled a sharp shift toward a hawkish scenario, strengthening market expectations of aggressive monetary tightening. Known for his strict stance, Tamura stated that the regulator must steadily raise the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points every few months to lift it from the current 1% toward a neutral level around 2% as soon as possible. This uncompromising rhetoric indicates the BOJ’s readiness to act proactively, without regard to external geopolitical factors or Middle East stabilization.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 161.50, 161.19, 160.53, 160.20, 160.05, 159.60, 159.45
• Resistance levels: 161.66, 162.00

The yen is moving toward testing the multi‑decade high at 162.00. The intraday resistance level of 161.66, together with the EMA lines, prevented a deeper correction. Under such market conditions, buy trades are appropriate from the intraday level of 161.66 or from the EMA lines. There are no fundamental reasons for yen strengthening at the moment – unless Japanese authorities conduct a currency intervention.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 161.66
• Res: 162.00
• Note: Buy trades from 161.66 or EMA lines. FX intervention from Japanese authorities in the 161.85–162.00 zone cannot be ruled out.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4143
• Prev. Close: 4001
• % chg. over the last day: -2.79%

On Wednesday, gold prices plunged nearly 3%, falling below the psychological $4,000 per ounce mark and hitting their lowest level since November 2025. The main driver of the decline was the powerful rally of the US dollar and a sharp shift in investor expectations toward a hawkish Fed scenario, pushing the probability of a September rate hike to 68% from just 29% a week earlier. The surge in US Treasury yields – fueled by long‑term inflation concerns following the earlier spike in oil prices – forced major central banks to maintain a hawkish stance, sharply increasing the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding gold and stripping it of fundamental support.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3937, 3884
• Resistance levels: 4031, 4067, 4138, 4171, 4232, 4273, 4323

Gold consolidated below 4031 and is trading under the psychological 4000 mark. There is MACD divergence, but buyer reaction is weak, increasing the likelihood of further decline. Under such market conditions, intraday sell trades are considered from 4031 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. There are no optimal buy entries at the moment.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 3937
• Res: 4031
• Note: Intraday short trades from 4031 or EMA lines with confirmation. No optimal buy entries at the moment.