This week, market participants will closely monitor developments in US–China trade negotiations ahead of the August 12 deadline, after which tariffs exceeding 100% may be imposed if no agreement is reached. Geopolitical risks will remain in focus, with Presidents Trump and Putin expected to meet to advance a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. In the United States, a busy data calendar includes releases of the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, retail sales, industrial production, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to deliver its monetary policy decision, with consensus expectations pointing to a 25-bps rate cut. Globally, attention will center on China’s industrial production, retail sales, and new yuan loans; Eurozone GDP and Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment; Japan’s preliminary Q2 GDP; and the United Kingdom’s GDP, labor market figures, industrial production, and trade data.
Monday, August 11
On Monday, markets will be watching Norway’s consumer inflation data, with monthly CPI expected to slow to around 0.2%, compared to 0.4% in June, marking the smallest uptick in three months. Year-over-year inflation is anticipated to hold steady at 3.0%, unchanged from June. The elevated core inflation suggests that disinflation is proceeding slowly, and supports the case for a cautious monetary policy stance ahead.
Main events of the day:
- Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, August 12
On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia, with analysts expecting a 25-bps rate cut to 3.60%, and markets pricing in the possibility of another move to 3.35% by year-end. This is a clear dovish shift that could weigh on the AUD, though it may offer support to domestic demand. Later in the day, all eyes turn to the US CPI; the August 12 release will be critical for shaping expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Even a mild upside surprise could reinforce the “higher for longer” narrative and support the USD. In the UK, labor market data is set to show average earnings growth around 5% y/y, the lowest since October 2024, but still elevated enough to keep the BoE leaning hawkish, which could provide some underlying support for GBP.
Main events of the day:
- Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, August 13
On Wednesday, attention turns to Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI). June’s reading is expected to show 2.9% year-over-year, matching expectations and marking the slowest producer inflation since August 2024. A figure that underperforms could weigh on the JPY, signaling milder upstream inflation pressures. Equally important is Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) for Q2, where the market expects a quarterly rise of around 0.8%, compared to a previous 0.9% gain. A soft print may dampen inflation outlook and pressure AUD, while a beat could support expectations for more sustained RBA caution.
Main events of the day:
- Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, August 14
On Thursday, traders will focus on Australia’s unemployment rate, with the June reading rising to 4.3%, up from 4.1% in May, signaling loosening labor market conditions and reinforcing expectations for further RBA easing. This deterioration in employment data is dovish for the AUD. Across Europe, the UK GDP report is expected to show sluggish growth, most projections anticipate full-year GDP expansion of around 0.7%, a modest pace that points to persistent economic softness and supports the Bank of England’s cautious stance. In the Eurozone, preliminary flash estimates indicate a 0.1% q/q rise in GDP for Q2, just up from Q1 levels, confirming a fragile growth trajectory.
Main events of the day:
- Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Employment Change (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, August 15
On Friday, the spotlight lands on Japan’s GDP, where the government recently downgraded its fiscal projection to 0.7% for the year ending March 2026, down from 1.2% due to drag from US tariffs and weak consumer demand. This softer outlook could temper expectations for BoJ tightening and weigh on the JPY. In China, markets will be watching a trio of key metrics: industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment. Recent patterns suggest sluggish momentum: August’s industrial production and retail sales both missed expectations, showing moderated growth in factory output and consumer spending, while urban unemployment stayed at 5.0%. These trends signal continued economic headwinds and could dampen appetite for the CNY. The US Retail Sales release rounds out the day with underlying strength. June figures show a 0.6% month-over-month increase and a 3.9% year-over-year gain in total retail and food services, signaling resilient consumer demand. This robust performance supports the USD and may reinforce views of sustained consumer-driven growth.
Main events of the day:
- Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.