La visión analítica de los principales pares de divisas el 2025.11.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.1630
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.1619
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.09 %

The Eurozone economy grew 1.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 1.3% but below Q2’s 1.5%. Among major economies, Spain led with 2.8% growth (vs. 3.1% in Q2), followed by the Netherlands at 1.6% (1.7%) and France at 0.9% (0.7%). Italy and Germany remained unchanged at 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Compared with Q2, the Eurozone grew 0.2%, in line with the initial estimate.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.1579, 1.1568, 1.1540
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.1605, 1.1650, 1.1665

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is upward. On Friday, the price corrected from resistance at 1.1650 and is now consolidating below 1.1605. This behavior may lead to further decline toward 1.1579. Buying opportunities can be considered from 1.1579 (with confirmation), or if the price consolidates again above the EMA lines.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks support at 1.1540 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 1.3191
• Prev. Cerrar: 1.3171
• % cambio. en el último día: -0.15 %

The British pound weakened on Friday amid investor concerns over the country’s financial stability. The reason was Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ decision to abandon plans to raise income tax, despite improved OBR projections that lowered the expected budget deficit from £35 billion to £20 billion. The November 26 budget will be discussed in cabinet, including exit taxes and limited liability partnerships. Markets reduced the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December to about 75%, but rising government bond yields continue to pressure sterling.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 1.3130, 1.3085, 1.3072
• Niveles de resistencia: 1.3185, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. A flat accumulation with narrowing liquidity is forming. Intraday bias favors sellers, making a downward impulse more likely. While the price remains in the middle of the accumulation, it is better to refrain from trading. A consolidation below 1.3130 will likely trigger selling down to 1.3085.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3216 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 154.52
• Prev. Cerrar: 154.53
• % cambio. en el último día: +0.01 %

On Monday, the Japanese yen weakened to 154.6 per dollar, near its lowest levels since February, despite stronger macro data. The economy contracted 0.4% q/q in Q3, better than the projections (-0.6%), indicating less slowdown than expected. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged the Bank of Japan to maintain low interest rates, citing the need to support economic growth and stable prices. This stance added pressure on the yen, as it implies that accommodative policy will remain longer than anticipated.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 154.49, 153.66, 153.15, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• Niveles de resistencia: 154.77, 155.02, 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. On Friday, the yen briefly strengthened to 153.66 but returned to its starting point by the end of the session. The price is now trapped in a narrow range of 154.49-154.77. Intraday bias favors buyers. Buying opportunities are best considered from 154.49, but with confirmation. A move above 154.49 will open the path to 155.02.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks below 151.85 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos del par de divisas:

• Prev. Abrir: 4163
• Prev. Cerrar: 4087
• % cambio. en el último día: -1.86%

On Friday, gold prices fell below $4,100 per ounce. The market continues to face uncertainty due to delays in US economic data releases caused by the longest government shutdown in history. Concerns grew that several key reports, including October CPI and employment data, may be delayed or not published at all if agencies fail to complete preparation due to data collection disruptions. Investors reduced expectations for Fed easing, with money markets now pricing in about a 50% chance of a December rate cut.

Recomendaciones de trading

• Niveles de soporte: 4037, 4019, 3965
• Niveles de resistencia: 4102, 4148, 4210, 4246, 4379

Technically, the medium-term is bullish. Gold remains under selling pressure despite the upward trend. The price is retesting support at 4037, with a possible test of 4019. These levels can be used as bases for buying, but with confirmation. For selling, the resistance level of 4102 can be considered.

Escenario alternativo:

if the price breaks support at 3965 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.