Gambaran Analisis untuk Pasangan Mata Wang Utama pada 2025.11.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.1630
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.1619
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -0.09 %

The Eurozone economy grew 1.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 1.3% but below Q2’s 1.5%. Among major economies, Spain led with 2.8% growth (vs. 3.1% in Q2), followed by the Netherlands at 1.6% (1.7%) and France at 0.9% (0.7%). Italy and Germany remained unchanged at 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Compared with Q2, the Eurozone grew 0.2%, in line with the initial estimate.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.1579, 1.1568, 1.1540
• Tahap rintangan: 1.1605, 1.1650, 1.1665

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is upward. On Friday, the price corrected from resistance at 1.1650 and is now consolidating below 1.1605. This behavior may lead to further decline toward 1.1579. Buying opportunities can be considered from 1.1579 (with confirmation), or if the price consolidates again above the EMA lines.

Senario alternatif:

if the price breaks support at 1.1540 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.3191
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.3171
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -0.15 %

The British pound weakened on Friday amid investor concerns over the country’s financial stability. The reason was Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ decision to abandon plans to raise income tax, despite improved OBR projections that lowered the expected budget deficit from £35 billion to £20 billion. The November 26 budget will be discussed in cabinet, including exit taxes and limited liability partnerships. Markets reduced the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December to about 75%, but rising government bond yields continue to pressure sterling.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.3130, 1.3085, 1.3072
• Tahap rintangan: 1.3185, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. A flat accumulation with narrowing liquidity is forming. Intraday bias favors sellers, making a downward impulse more likely. While the price remains in the middle of the accumulation, it is better to refrain from trading. A consolidation below 1.3130 will likely trigger selling down to 1.3085.

Senario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3216 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 154.52
• Ditutup Sebelum: 154.53
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.01 %

On Monday, the Japanese yen weakened to 154.6 per dollar, near its lowest levels since February, despite stronger macro data. The economy contracted 0.4% q/q in Q3, better than the projections (-0.6%), indicating less slowdown than expected. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged the Bank of Japan to maintain low interest rates, citing the need to support economic growth and stable prices. This stance added pressure on the yen, as it implies that accommodative policy will remain longer than anticipated.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 154.49, 153.66, 153.15, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• Tahap rintangan: 154.77, 155.02, 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. On Friday, the yen briefly strengthened to 153.66 but returned to its starting point by the end of the session. The price is now trapped in a narrow range of 154.49-154.77. Intraday bias favors buyers. Buying opportunities are best considered from 154.49, but with confirmation. A move above 154.49 will open the path to 155.02.

Senario alternatif:

if the price breaks below 151.85 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 4163
• Ditutup Sebelum: 4087
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -1.86%

On Friday, gold prices fell below $4,100 per ounce. The market continues to face uncertainty due to delays in US economic data releases caused by the longest government shutdown in history. Concerns grew that several key reports, including October CPI and employment data, may be delayed or not published at all if agencies fail to complete preparation due to data collection disruptions. Investors reduced expectations for Fed easing, with money markets now pricing in about a 50% chance of a December rate cut.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 4037, 4019, 3965
• Tahap rintangan: 4102, 4148, 4210, 4246, 4379

Technically, the medium-term is bullish. Gold remains under selling pressure despite the upward trend. The price is retesting support at 4037, with a possible test of 4019. These levels can be used as bases for buying, but with confirmation. For selling, the resistance level of 4102 can be considered.

Senario alternatif:

if the price breaks support at 3965 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.