بررسی اجمالی تحلیلی جفت ارزهای اصلی در 2025.12.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.1739
• قبلی بستن: 1.1727
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.13%

The Euro pared losses to around $1.1733 after the ECB left interest rates unchanged, a move that met market expectations but provided little forward guidance. Policymakers deemed current rates generally neutral, neither restrictive nor stimulative, and reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without committing to a specific path. Meanwhile, lower-than-expected US inflation has fueled speculation regarding potential Fed rate cuts.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.1725, 1.1680, 1.1656, 1.1590, 1.1555, 1.1503
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.1786

The price has corrected to the midpoint of the consolidated balance range, where buyers have shown activity. This level can be reused for buy entries. The profit target is resistance at 1.1786 and above. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling. However, if sellers break below the base of the bullish impulse, a sell-off toward 1.1680 may occur.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1725
• Res: 1.1786
• Note: Consider buys from support at 1.1725 with confirmation. Profit target: 1.1786.

The GBP/USD currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 1.3374
• قبلی بستن: 1.3381
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: +0.05 %

The British Pound remained near the $1.33 level after the Bank of England cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% at its final meeting of the year, as expected. The vote split was 5-4, with Governor Andrew Bailey voting for the cut. Policymakers reiterated guidance for a “gradual” pace of easing, noting that future decisions would be balanced. Markets are now pricing in 62 basis points of easing by the end of next year, down from 66 basis points prior to the decision.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 1.3374, 1.3355, 1.3354, 1.3292, 1.3268, 1.3156, 1.3111
• سطوح مقاومت: 1.3447

After testing the consolidated balance, the price surged to resistance at 1.3447, where sellers became active. Buyers again failed to hold the price above 1.3400, and the price is currently testing support at 1.3374. If sellers push through the 1.3355 support level, a sell-off below 1.33 could follow.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3374
• Res: 1.3447
• Note: Look for buy trades from 1.3374 with confirmation. A break below this zone will trigger a sell-off.

The USD/JPY currency pair

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 155.65
• قبلی بستن: 155.56
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.06 %

The market estimates an 80% probability of a 25 bps rate hike to 0.75% at today’s BoJ meeting. After a prolonged period of ultra-loose policy, such a move could mark a turning point for the Japanese bond market. Arguments for tightening include persistent inflation, a recovering manufacturing sector, and export growth. A hike would likely be seen as the start of a cautious tightening cycle, potentially supporting the Yen in the medium term by affecting yield differentials and carry trade strategies.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 155.40, 154.92, 154.41, 154.17
• سطوح مقاومت: 156.10, 156.57, 157.11

The technical setup remains largely unchanged. The pair is trading above 155.40 and is currently aiming to test liquidity above 156.10. Intraday buy trades can be sought from the EMA lines with confirmation. For sells, monitor the price reaction at 156.10; if sellers show strength here, short positions with tight stop-losses can be considered.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 155.40
• Res: 156.10
• Note: Look for intraday buy trades from EMA lines toward the 156.10 level.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

شاخص های فنی جفت ارز:

• قبلی باز کن: 4338
• قبلی بستن: 4335
• % chg. در طول روز گذشته: -0.07%

Gold prices rose to $4,370 per ounce on Thursday, driven by macroeconomic data that bolstered expectations for further Fed rate cuts. US inflation in November slowed to 2.7% YoY, while core inflation dropped to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. Markets currently see a 25% chance of a rate cut in January, with a cut by April almost fully priced in.

توصیه های معاملاتی

• سطوح پشتیبانی: 4309, 4294, 4263, 4246, 4205
• سطوح مقاومت: 4350, 4375

Gold reached the 4375 resistance level, followed by a sharp bearish reaction. The price broke impulsively below 4350; this zone (4350-4375) can now be considered for sell entries, with a target to test liquidity at 4309. Given the MACD divergence, the probability of a correction is very high. There are currently no optimal entry points for buying.

سناریوی جایگزین:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4309
• Res: 4350
• Note: Consider selling from 4350 with confirmation. Target: liquidity below 4309.