主要货币对的分析概要 2025.12.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.1739
• 前一收盘价: 1.1727
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.13%

The Euro pared losses to around $1.1733 after the ECB left interest rates unchanged, a move that met market expectations but provided little forward guidance. Policymakers deemed current rates generally neutral, neither restrictive nor stimulative, and reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without committing to a specific path. Meanwhile, lower-than-expected US inflation has fueled speculation regarding potential Fed rate cuts.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.1725, 1.1680, 1.1656, 1.1590, 1.1555, 1.1503
• 阻力价位: 1.1786

The price has corrected to the midpoint of the consolidated balance range, where buyers have shown activity. This level can be reused for buy entries. The profit target is resistance at 1.1786 and above. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling. However, if sellers break below the base of the bullish impulse, a sell-off toward 1.1680 may occur.

选择场景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1725
• Res: 1.1786
• Note: Consider buys from support at 1.1725 with confirmation. Profit target: 1.1786.

The GBP/USD currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 1.3374
• 前一收盘价: 1.3381
• 过去一天的变化%: +0.05 %

The British Pound remained near the $1.33 level after the Bank of England cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% at its final meeting of the year, as expected. The vote split was 5-4, with Governor Andrew Bailey voting for the cut. Policymakers reiterated guidance for a “gradual” pace of easing, noting that future decisions would be balanced. Markets are now pricing in 62 basis points of easing by the end of next year, down from 66 basis points prior to the decision.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 1.3374, 1.3355, 1.3354, 1.3292, 1.3268, 1.3156, 1.3111
• 阻力价位: 1.3447

After testing the consolidated balance, the price surged to resistance at 1.3447, where sellers became active. Buyers again failed to hold the price above 1.3400, and the price is currently testing support at 1.3374. If sellers push through the 1.3355 support level, a sell-off below 1.33 could follow.

选择场景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3374
• Res: 1.3447
• Note: Look for buy trades from 1.3374 with confirmation. A break below this zone will trigger a sell-off.

The USD/JPY currency pair

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 155.65
• 前一收盘价: 155.56
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.06 %

The market estimates an 80% probability of a 25 bps rate hike to 0.75% at today’s BoJ meeting. After a prolonged period of ultra-loose policy, such a move could mark a turning point for the Japanese bond market. Arguments for tightening include persistent inflation, a recovering manufacturing sector, and export growth. A hike would likely be seen as the start of a cautious tightening cycle, potentially supporting the Yen in the medium term by affecting yield differentials and carry trade strategies.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 155.40, 154.92, 154.41, 154.17
• 阻力价位: 156.10, 156.57, 157.11

The technical setup remains largely unchanged. The pair is trading above 155.40 and is currently aiming to test liquidity above 156.10. Intraday buy trades can be sought from the EMA lines with confirmation. For sells, monitor the price reaction at 156.10; if sellers show strength here, short positions with tight stop-losses can be considered.

选择场景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 155.40
• Res: 156.10
• Note: Look for intraday buy trades from EMA lines toward the 156.10 level.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

货币对的技术指标:

• 前一开盘价: 4338
• 前一收盘价: 4335
• 过去一天的变化%: -0.07%

Gold prices rose to $4,370 per ounce on Thursday, driven by macroeconomic data that bolstered expectations for further Fed rate cuts. US inflation in November slowed to 2.7% YoY, while core inflation dropped to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. Markets currently see a 25% chance of a rate cut in January, with a cut by April almost fully priced in.

交易建议

• 支撑价位: 4309, 4294, 4263, 4246, 4205
• 阻力价位: 4350, 4375

Gold reached the 4375 resistance level, followed by a sharp bearish reaction. The price broke impulsively below 4350; this zone (4350-4375) can now be considered for sell entries, with a target to test liquidity at 4309. Given the MACD divergence, the probability of a correction is very high. There are currently no optimal entry points for buying.

选择场景:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4309
• Res: 4350
• Note: Consider selling from 4350 with confirmation. Target: liquidity below 4309.