L'aperçu analytique des principales paires de devises sur 2026.03.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicateurs techniques de la paire de devises:

• Précédent Ouvrir: 1.1794
• Précédent Fermer: 1.1814
• % vari. au cours du dernier jour: +0.17%

On Monday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) jumped 0.5% to 98 points, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset amid global chaos. Meanwhile, the euro hit a multi-week low. Markets are shocked by the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which jeopardizes global oil trade. Despite Iran’s retaliatory strikes on US bases in the region, the dollar is holding its ground as investors exit risky assets en masse into cash and government bonds. The situation for the Fed is complicated by domestic data: the January surge in Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations, confirming that new tariffs are already being passed on to consumers. Markets have also sharply revised expectations for monetary policy – the probability of an ECB rate cut by December has fallen to 30%, as the regulator will likely need to keep rates high to combat imported inflation.

Recommandations de trading

• Niveaux de support: 1.1727, 1.1697
• Niveaux de résistance: 1.1742, 1.1766, 1.1793, 1.1823, 1.1850

The European currency started the trading week with a sharp decline, opening with a significant downward price gap. Amid the global flight to safety and the rapid strengthening of the dollar, the euro continues to lose ground, moving purposefully toward the liquidity zone below 1.1727. At this stage, how the market reacts to this level is key. In the absence of buyer support and the persistence of strong bearish momentum, the next target for the decline will be 1.1697. If buyers seize the initiative at 1.1727 and halt the current fall, forming a base for a reversal, a corrective rise toward 1.1766 to close the morning gap becomes possible. Without clear signals of major demand and confirmed buyer reaction, opening buy positions is not recommended at this time, as the risk of a further collapse remains high.

Scénario alternatif:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1727
• Res: 1.1766
• Note: Intraday, looking for sell trades from the EMA lines or from the resistance level of 1.1766. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicateurs techniques de la paire de devises:

• Précédent Ouvrir: 1.3479
• Précédent Fermer: 1.3479
• % vari. au cours du dernier jour: 0.0%

British pound fell to $1.34 – its lowest since the start of the year. In addition to the global flight to safety due to the Persian Gulf war and the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, sterling was undercut by a severe domestic political crisis in the UK. In the by-elections in Gorton and Denton on February 26, the Labour Party suffered a crushing defeat, falling to third place. The Prime Minister’s position has also weakened critically amid a corruption scandal: on February 23, Peter Mandelson, former Ambassador to the US and a key ally of Starmer, was arrested on suspicion of passing classified data to Jeffrey Epstein. Markets fear that political turbulence will force the government to soften fiscal policy in the « Spring Statement » on March 3.

Recommandations de trading

• Niveaux de support: 1.3381, 1.3347, 1.3292
• Niveaux de résistance: 1.3401, 1.3454, 1.3501, 1.3582, 1.3606

British pound showed a significant downward gap at the market open and continues to trade under pressure from the powerful strengthening of the US dollar. The intraday priority remains with the sellers, making it most logical to search for sell trades in the direction of the current momentum. Technically, for short positions, one should wait for a corrective pullback to the Moving Averages (EMA) or to the mirror resistance level of 1.3401. However, opening trades here requires confirmation. Regarding buy scenarios, traders’ attention should be focused on the liquidity zones below 1.3381 and 1.3347, where large orders to pick up the asset may be activated. Nonetheless, attempting to play against such an aggressive decline is extremely risky.

Scénario alternatif:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3347
• Res: 1.3401
• Note: Intraday, looking for sell trades from the 1.3401 resistance level or EMA lines, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for buys.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicateurs techniques de la paire de devises:

• Précédent Ouvrir: 156.09
• Précédent Fermer: 156.09
• % vari. au cours du dernier jour: 0.0%

On Monday, the Japanese yen weakened to 156.5 per dollar, continuing its fall amid the global flight to the US currency. Despite the yen’s status as a safe-haven asset, it is losing out to the dollar due to direct US involvement in the conflict. The situation is exacerbated by internal political divisions in Japan: the appointment of dove-leaning members to the Bank of Japan board and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s open concerns about rising rates are undermining confidence in the yen. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and energy import costs skyrocketing, Japan faces the threat of a trade deficit, stripping the national currency of its fundamental support.

Recommandations de trading

• Niveaux de support: 156.23, 155.70, 154.86, 154.00, 152.61
• Niveaux de résistance: 157.37, 158.12

USD/JPY quotes demonstrated strong bullish momentum, breaking out of a two-day range. The Japanese currency is weakening under the pressure of three factors simultaneously: the sharp strengthening of the dollar as a haven due to the Persian Gulf war, the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threatening Japan’s energy security, and the internal political conflict. From a technical standpoint, the pair is aimed at testing the liquidity zone above 157.37. To enter the market within this strong upward trend, it is most justified to look for joining points on local pullbacks to intraday support levels or Moving Averages (EMA). There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

Scénario alternatif:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 156.23
• Res: 157.37
• Note: Looking for intraday buys from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. Profit target – 157.37. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicateurs techniques de la paire de devises:

• Précédent Ouvrir: 5188
• Précédent Fermer: 5278
• % vari. au cours du dernier jour: +1.73%

On Monday, gold jumped by more than 1%, surpassing the $5,360 per ounce mark. The precious metal hit a monthly high following a panic flight to safety after the death of Ayatollah Khamenei and a series of retaliatory Iranian strikes on US bases in eight Middle Eastern countries. The de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the threat of a major war have turned gold into the only reliable wealth preservation tool, allowing the asset to record a unique historical milestone: a seventh consecutive month of growth – the longest rally period since 1973. Beyond geopolitics, quotes are supported by a massive transformation of the global financial system: central banks of BRICS+ and the Global South continue to aggressively increase gold reserves, moving away from US and Eurozone sovereign bonds due to sanction risks and currency volatility.

Recommandations de trading

• Niveaux de support: 5302, 5214, 5186, 5151
• Niveaux de résistance: 5450, 5600

Gold quotes on Monday, March 2, demonstrated a powerful vertical takeoff, opening with a substantial bullish gap amid the escalation in the Persian Gulf and the death of Ayatollah Khamenei. Intraday priority remains strictly upward, as the precious metal currently serves as the world’s primary haven from geopolitical chaos and the energy crisis. Although the price has significantly deviated from its average values and appears overbought, attempting to find sell points under such momentum is highly unwise. Technically, the main target for the continued rally is the liquidity zone above the psychological level of 5450 per ounce. For a safe entry into long positions, it is most advisable to wait for local corrections to intraday support levels or Moving Averages (EMA), which can act as dynamic support for the price. At this moment, any sells lack fundamental justification and optimal entry points.

Scénario alternatif:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 5302
• Res: 5470
• Note: Intraday, it is best to consider intraday levels or EMA lines. The growth target is liquidity above 5450. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.