L'aperçu analytique des principales paires de devises sur 2026.04.23

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicateurs techniques de la paire de devises:

• Précédent Ouvrir: 1.1746
• Précédent Fermer: 1.1705
• % vari. au cours du dernier jour: -0.35%

The Eurozone confidence Index collapsed by 4.3 points to 20.6, updating the lowest level since December 2022. A similar negative trend is observed across the European Union as a whole (decline to -19.4). Such a sharp drop, pushing indicators far below long‑term averages, is directly linked to the prolonged blockade of maritime routes and geopolitical confrontation, which triggered a new wave of increases in electricity and fuel prices. Although markets have revised ECB policy expectations toward greater pessimism, two rate hikes by the end of the year are still priced in. This uncertainty – between the need to suppress inflation and the risk of completely undermining consumer demand – creates an extremely difficult backdrop for the Eurozone’s economic recovery this quarter.

Recommandations de trading

• Niveaux de support: 1.1678, 1.1643, 1.1605
• Niveaux de résistance: 1.1724, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro has consolidated below 1.1724, which could potentially lead to a decline toward 1.1678 or even 1.1643. Today, the focus is on the 1.1724 resistance level: short trades may be considered here if sellers show a reaction. For long trades, evaluate price action at the 1.1678 support level.

Scénario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1678
• Res: 1.1724
• Note: Long trades are best considered from 1.1678 with confirmation. For selling, evaluate sellers’ reaction at 1.1724.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicateurs techniques de la paire de devises:

• Précédent Ouvrir: 1.3500
• Précédent Fermer: 1.3499
• % vari. au cours du dernier jour: -0.01%

The economic picture in the UK remains difficult: headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% in March (vs. 3.0% in February), driven directly by rising gasoline prices due to the military conflict. However, the hawkish sentiment among investors softened somewhat due to core inflation unexpectedly falling to 3.1%. Despite service‑sector inflation rising to 4.5%, the market lowered expectations for the Bank of England tightening to 39 basis points – still equivalent to two rate hikes in 2026, but not enough to give the pound a strong bullish impulse.

Recommandations de trading

• Niveaux de support: 1.3474, 1.3445, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• Niveaux de résistance: 1.3541, 1.3590, 1.3631

The British pound is more resilient to the strengthening dollar. Unlike the euro, which fell sharply, the pound continues forming a flat accumulation range between 1.3474 and 1.3541. An SMT divergence is forming between the instruments, often a precursor to a reversal. Under such market conditions, long trades are considered from 1.3474 with confirmation. A breakout below 1.3474 may trigger a sharp sell‑off toward 1.3445 and lower.

Scénario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3474
• Res: 1.3541
• Note: Long trades should be considered from 1.3474 with confirmation. A breakout below 1.3474 may lead to a sharp decline toward 1.3445 and lower.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicateurs techniques de la paire de devises:

• Précédent Ouvrir: 159.33
• Précédent Fermer: 159.43
• % vari. au cours du dernier jour: +0.06%

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair showed moderate growth of +0.06%, with the yen unable to hold its positions despite a strong start to the session. The initial strengthening of the Japanese currency was driven by impressive external‑trade data: exports in March rose by 11.7%, beating expectations, while imports jumped by 10.9%, marking the strongest increase in the past 14 months. Additional short‑term support for the yen came from a decline in US Treasury yields, but these factors were quickly overshadowed by broader market conditions. The main blow to the yen came from a sharp surge in oil prices, which rose by more than 3%. Given that Japan imports more than 90% of its energy resources, rising commodity prices traditionally put pressure on the national currency and the economy. At the same time, risk appetite in the domestic market pushed the Nikkei Index to a new all‑time high, which effectively stripped the yen of its safe‑haven status in the eyes of traders. At the moment, markets estimate the probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the April 28 meeting at only 9%, leaving the yen vulnerable to a strong US dollar.

Recommandations de trading

• Niveaux de support: 159.46, 159.01, 158.55, 158.27
• Niveaux de résistance: 159.86, 160.03

After testing liquidity above 159.46, the price failed to reach the opposing liquidity pool below 159.01. The price consolidated near the EMA lines and is again moving toward the upper liquidity test. This indicates intraday buying pressure. Despite the MACD divergence, the price may continue rising toward 159.86. Therefore, if the price remains above the EMA lines, long trades may be considered toward this level. Consolidation below 159.46 and below the EMAs will likely lead to a correction toward 159.01.

Scénario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.46
• Res: 159.86
• Note: Long trades are appropriate from 159.46 or from the EMA lines with confirmation. Consolidation below 159.46 and below the EMAs will likely lead to a correction toward 159.01.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicateurs techniques de la paire de devises:

• Précédent Ouvrir: 4721
• Précédent Fermer: 4739
• % vari. au cours du dernier jour: +0.38%

On Thursday, gold once again came under pressure, falling to 4,700 dollars per ounce and fully erasing the modest gains of the previous day. The current dynamics of the precious metal highlight a paradoxical situation: despite its status as a safe‑haven asset, gold continues to decline amid the escalation, having already lost around 10% of its value since the beginning of the military conflict. The main negative factor remains the inflationary shock caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and mutual trade embargoes, which is forcing global central banks to prepare for a new cycle of interest‑rate hikes. The geopolitical deadlock is pushing investors to prefer cash dollars rather than gold.

Recommandations de trading

• Niveaux de support: 4694, 4608
• Niveaux de résistance: 4753, 4798, 4825, 4857, 4900, 4963

Gold fell sharply yesterday and reached the liquidity pool below 4700, where buyers reacted. After testing liquidity below 4694 on Tuesday, gold partially recovered but failed to consolidate above the EMA lines, indicating seller pressure. The price has again declined toward 4694, where buyers are reacting, potentially opening opportunities for intraday long trades. It is crucial for buyers to keep the price above 4694, as a breakout below this level will lead to further sell‑offs.

Scénario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4694
• Res: 4753
• Note: Intraday long trades may be considered from 4694 with a target of 4753. A breakout below 4694 will lead to further gold sell‑offs.