This week’s market narrative combines high-frequency activity data with a heavy macroeconomic tilt at the end of the week, featuring the US advance GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE), as well as Canada’s GDP print. Traders should watch whether growth indicators (PMIs) continue to hold up, which would support risk assets and put upward pressure on yields, or whether signs of cooling prompt markets to price in more easing. Key central-bank-adjacent events (China LPR holding, SNB decision, Banxico expectations) will also shape FX and fixed-income flows through cross-currency carry and local-rate repricing.
Lundi, September 22
On Monday, China sets the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates. The market widely expects no change (1-year LPR: 3.00%, 5-year: 3.50%) following the recent PBoC forbearance. А hold will keep CNY pressure relieved but still sensitive to fresh growth data. Later, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in a hawkish tone, supporting the stance that inflation risks remain, which could lift the GBP.
Principaux événements de la journée:
- China 1-y Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- China 5-y Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).
Mardi, September 23
On Tuesday, flash PMIs are expected to arrive, with stronger-than-expected data likely to lift risk assets, support commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD), and push yields higher. Inflationary pressure is expected to ease in Singapore, which could have a negative impact on the SGD. Fed Chair Powell speaks in the evening – any change in tone regarding inflation and the outlook for cuts will magnify the day’s moves across FX, rates, and equities.
Principaux événements de la journée:
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 19:35 (GMT+3).
Mercredi, September 24
On Wednesday, Australia will publish its consumer price index. Annual inflation is expected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9%. Australia’s CPI results will be closely monitored to determine the tone of the RBA; higher figures will likely support the AUD. EIA crude oil inventories affect energy markets. A decline in crude oil inventories usually leads to an increase in WTI/Brent and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD). It is also important for traders to monitor Germany’s ifo business climate index for signals about growth in the eurozone.
Principaux événements de la journée:
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- German ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Jeudi, September 25
Thursday will be a busy day. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will hold a meeting on monetary policy. The market expects the SNB to maintain its policy after the recent easing. Moderate fluctuations in the Swiss franc exchange rate are expected, unless the assessment is unexpectedly soft. In the US, preliminary US GDP data and initial jobless claims will be released. According to the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow data, it was around 3.3% (forecast for Q3). Higher preliminary GDP will support risk assets and push US yields higher (strengthening the dollar), while weak data will reinforce expectations of easing and be favorable for stocks and gold. In Mexico, the central bank will also hold a meeting. According to polls, Banxico is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 7.5%. Confirmation of this decision is expected to weaken the MXN and lower local bond yields.
Principaux événements de la journée:
- Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland SNB Policy Rate at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 22:00 (GMT+3).
Vendredi, September 26
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, due out on Friday, will show whether price pressures continue to increase. Economists expect the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August to show a 2.8% annualized rate (year-over-year), down from 2.6%. A rise in this indicator could support the US Dollar. Also on Friday, traders’ attention will be focused on the inflation data in Tokyo, which is considered a leading indicator of inflation. Inflation in Tokyo is expected to rise from 2.5% to 2.8%, increasing the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates before the end of the year. The Japanese yen could benefit significantly from this. Canada’s GDP month-over-month (m/m) consensus is modest, around 0.1%. A stronger print would shore up CAD, while a downside surprise would lift rate-cut bets and weaken CAD.
Principaux événements de la journée:
- Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:30 (GMT+3);
- Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Cet article reflète une opinion personnelle et ne doit pas être interprété comme un conseil en investissement, et/ou une offre, et/ou une demande persistante de réalisation d'opérations financières, et/ou une garantie, et/ou une prévision d'événements futurs.