Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2025.04.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0789
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0852
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.58 %

The euro jumped to 1.0950 USD on Thursday, even as US President Donald Trump imposed 20% tariffs on all imports from the European Union. The currency also benefited from a weaker US dollar as the imposition of tariffs marked a significant escalation in the global trade conflict and raised concerns about economic growth. With inflationary pressures easing and global trade tensions escalating, market expectations that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates by 65 bps this year have intensified.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0879, 1.0805, 1.0785
• Level resistance: 1.0952, 1.0979

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to bullish. The euro has sharply strengthened on the backdrop of a falling Dollar Index. The price consolidated above the EMA lines and reached the resistance level of 1.0953. After the liquidity test above, the price is likely to flatten or partially correct, as there is now an abnormal deviation from the average values. Buying at such prices is not recommended. Selling can be considered after a test of 1.0953, but with confirmation.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0805 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2919
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.3007
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.68 %

The British pound jumped to 1.31 on Thursday, after Trump imposed sweeping tariffs. The UK is subject to a blanket tariff of 10% on imports. UK officials have not yet reacted to the tariffs, but the pound sterling strengthened to a 5-month high.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.3025, 1.2953, 1.2901, 1.2884
• Level resistance: 1.3176

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency has changed to bullish. The price has consolidated above the priority change level, but it has strongly deviated from the EMA lines, which increases the probability of a technical correction. It is not recommended to buy now. Selling can be looked at intraday, but only with confirmation in the change of market structure and with a short stop losses.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2884 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 149.56
• Tutup sebelumnya: 149.27
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.19 %

The Japanese yen rose to 147 per dollar on Thursday, hitting a three-week high, as investors sought safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping retaliatory tariffs, heightening fears of the start of a devastating global trade war. Trump imposed an additional 34% tariffs on China, bringing the total level of duties on that country’s goods to 54%. Other major economies hit with high tariffs include the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (26%), as well as a base tariff of 10% on imports from all countries. Earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that new US tariffs could significantly impact global trade and economic growth.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 147.41, 146.65, 146.00
• Level resistance: 148.41, 149.16, 150.27

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to a downtrend. The yen strengthened to a one-month high. However, the price has deviated strongly from the EMA midlines, which increases the probability of a technical correction. Buying can be considered intraday from the support lines at 147.41 or 146.65. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 150.27 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 3114
• Tutup sebelumnya: 3134
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.64 %

Gold rose to $3164 per ounce, hitting a new record high, as risk aversion increased after President Trump’s tariff announcement following the outbreak of the global trade war. Weak US jobs data and a disappointing industrial production report shifted investors’ attention to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data for further insight into the Fed’s policy outlook.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 3100, 3057, 3037,3000, 2976, 2954, 2930, 2906, 2896, 2859, 2833
• Level resistance: 3150, 3200

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold rallied sharply amid the introduction of massive tariffs, but after a liquidity test above 3150, then corrected sharply to the EMA lines. Intraday bearish bias prevails, and a fall to the 3100 support level is not ruled out. Buying should be considered from 3100, or if a sharp bullish reaction follows from the EMA lines. Selling is not recommended here.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks below the support level of 3000, the downtrend will likely resume.