主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.01.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.0288
• 前回終了: 1.0297
• 前日に%変動: -0.09 %

The minutes of the ECB’s December 11-12 meeting were somewhat dovish as they noted that while there was broad support for a 25 bps rate cut at the meeting, some ECB officials favored a more aggressive 50 bps cut. ECB Governing Council representative Centeno added yesterday that inflation is falling as planned, and Eurozone interest rates will continue on a trajectory, ideally approaching values close to 2%. 

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.0275, 1.0238, 1.0223
• 抵抗レベル: 1.0360, 1.0382, 1.0403, 1.0425, 1.0447

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish but close to change. The situation has not changed compared to yesterday. Captured liquidity above 1.0326 was distributed to the support level of 1.0275. However, the liquidity is not enough to resume the bearish trend. Against this backdrop, a flat accumulation is forming to gather more liquidity. At the moment, the price is expected to rise to 1.0326. The levels of 1.0275 or 1.0239 are worth considering for buying.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0360 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will be resumed with a high probability.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.2234
• 前回終了: 1.2241
• 前日に%変動: -0.06 %

UK GDP data showed that the economy grew by only 0.1% in November, below forecasts of 0.2%, and growth in the three months to November stopped. This means the economy will stagnate for a second consecutive quarter unless GDP grows at least 0.07% in December. So far, traders have only envisioned one quarter-point interest rate cut by the Bank of England this year. UK financial markets, especially the bond market, remain under pressure amid growing concerns over the country’s debt levels and the government’s ability to restore public finances by sticking to its budget plans. 

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.2192, 1.2141
• 抵抗レベル: 1.2262, 1.2322, 1.2371, 1.2455, 1.2507, 1.2540, 1.2568

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Technically, the British pound looks weaker than the euro. After grabbing liquidity above 1.2262, the price closed sharply below the level, and there is a high probability of distributing this liquidity below 1.2141. Intra-day selling from the moving averages can be looked for. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2376 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 156.39
• 前回終了: 155.14
• 前日に%変動: -0.80 %

The Japanese yen continues to strengthen. This is supported by growing speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again next week. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy Ryozo Himino signaled the possibility of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, with strong inflation and wage data supporting this outlook. Ueda also expressed growing confidence in wage growth, citing positive feedback from various industries.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 154.93, 154.34
• 抵抗レベル: 155.95, 156.52, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Currently, the price is trading in the demand zone, which makes it difficult to find entry points to sell. The price will likely form a flat accumulation to accumulate liquidity for further downward movement. It is not excluded that buyers will try to reach the resistance level of 156.52. Considering the MACD divergence, intraday buying can be sought, but up to the nearest targets and with a short-stop loss.

別のシナリオ:

If the price breaks above the resistance at 158.19, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 2696
• 前回終了: 2715
• 前日に%変動: +0.70 %

Gold traded at nearly $2,710 per ounce on Friday, near its highest monthly level and posting its third weekly gain. Recent US economic data, including lower-than-expected core inflation and disappointing retail sales data, revived hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut rates more than once this year. The US Fed spokesman Waller fueled that optimism by saying that if economic data weakens, the central bank could go for three or four rate cuts this year. Such measures would increase the attractiveness of the interest-free precious metal.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 2697, 2676, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• 抵抗レベル: 2726

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to an uptrend. The price is aiming to test liquidity above 2726 (December high). Divergence on several timeframes indicates that the strength of buyers is weakening. Under such market conditions, earlier opened purchases should be closed, and it is too late to open new ones. And conditions have not yet formed for selling. 

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2656, the downtrend is likely to resume.