Gambaran Analisis untuk Pasangan Mata Wang Utama pada 2026.03.26

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.1612
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.1560
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -0.45%

The euro stabilized around 1.1580 dollars. ECB rhetoric remains cautious: Christine Lagarde confirmed readiness to act “at any meeting,” but the market has already begun to revise expectations toward easing. Whereas investors previously expected three rate hikes by the end of 2026, the current decline in energy prices has forced them to limit expectations to just two hikes. This reassessment reflects the market’s belief that US diplomatic pressure on Iran will ultimately prevent the worst‑case scenario of a “stagflationary winter” for the Eurozone.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.1546, 1.1522, 1.1490
• Tahap rintangan: 1.1575, 1.1639, 1.1666, 1.1707

The European currency consolidated below 1.1575, increasing the likelihood of further decline toward 1.1546 or even 1.1522. Under such market conditions, sell trades may be considered intraday from 1.1575 or from EMA lines, but with confirmation. For buying, it is important to see a return of the price above 1.1575, which will open space for growth toward 1.1630 and higher.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1546
• Res: 1.1575
• Note: Sell trades may be considered intraday from 1.1575 or from EMA lines, but with confirmation. For buying, it is important to see a return of the price above 1.1575.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.3413
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.3368
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -0.34%

The British pound stabilized at 1.34 dollars, ignoring February inflation data and focusing entirely on the geopolitical agenda. Although the UK core CPI rose to 3.2%, slightly above predictions, investors considered these figures outdated, as they do not reflect the shocks from the later‑developing Middle East conflict. Investors believe that de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf will allow the Bank of England to avoid aggressive tightening, keeping the pound in a narrow range while awaiting real steps toward a ceasefire.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.3331, 1.3300
• Tahap rintangan: 1.3378, 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

Technically, sellers are beginning to dominate intraday: the price consolidated below 1.3378, and there is a high probability of further decline toward 1.3331 or even 1.3300. For growth to resume, the price must consolidate again above 1.3378; while it remains below this level, intraday setups favor selling.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3331
• Res: 1.3378
• Note: Sell trades may be considered intraday from 1.3378 or from EMA lines, but with confirmation. For buying, it is important to see a return of the price above 1.3378.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 158.66
• Ditutup Sebelum: 159.41
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.47%

The Japanese yen weakened to 159.5 per dollar, losing ground for the third consecutive day. The decline was caused by a stronger dollar amid a diplomatic deadlock: Iran officially rejected the American “15‑point plan” and issued a counter‑ultimatum with five demands. These include recognition of Tehran’s full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and payment of war reparations – conditions Washington has already called unacceptable. Against this backdrop, global oil prices resumed rising, increasing inflationary pressure on Japan’s economy, which depends on imports for 90% of its raw materials from the conflict zone. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government is taking emergency steps to stabilize the situation. This Thursday, Japan began the largest oil release from state reserves in its history (around 80 million barrels) in coordination with the IEA.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 159.03, 158.26, 157.87, 157.32
• Tahap rintangan: 159.62, 160.21

The Japanese yen consolidated above 159.03 and continues to weaken against the dollar. The price is near levels of previous interventions, so caution is needed with long positions above 159. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at the resistance level of 159.62. There are currently no optimal entry points for buying.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.03
• Res: 159.62
• Note: For selling, evaluate price reaction at 159.62. There are currently no optimal buying opportunities.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 4480
• Ditutup Sebelum: 4505
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.55%

Gold stabilized around 4,500 dollars per ounce, failing to extend the growth of the last two sessions due to the diplomatic stalemate. Iran officially rejected the possibility of direct negotiations and issued a counter‑ultimatum. Markets are alarmed not only by Iran’s militant rhetoric demanding sovereign control over the strategic waterway, but also by Washington’s order to deploy additional forces of the 82nd Airborne Division, which heightened fears of a possible ground invasion. In March, gold already experienced a 25% correction from its peaks, as investors began to view the energy shock primarily as an inflationary threat, raising government‑bond yields and the cost of holding a non‑yielding metal.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 4442, 4169, 4027
• Tahap rintangan: 4600, 4732

Gold has fallen to the support level of 4442, where price action must be evaluated. Buyers must avoid allowing the price to consolidate below the root of the upward impulse; otherwise, the price may sharply fall again to 4300 or lower. On the other hand, if buyers show initiative at 4442, the price may resume growth toward 4600.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4442
• Res: 4600
• Note: Intraday, look for buys from 4442, but with mandatory confirmation. If sellers show initiative and the price consolidates below 4440, the downtrend may resume with new strength.