The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.11.28

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1589
• Prev. Close: 1.1594
• % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

According to the ECB meeting minutes from October 29-30, most Governing Council members considered it appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged amid heightened uncertainty. Some even noted that further monetary easing may not be necessary. Policymakers concluded that the current stance is “in good shape,” supported by the resilience of the eurozone economy and inflation gradually approaching the target.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1583, 1.1550, 1.1503
• Resistance levels: 1.1613, 1.1653

The situation has remained virtually unchanged since yesterday. The euro is forming a flat accumulation with boundaries of 1.1583-1.1613. For buy deals, it is best to use 1.1583, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales, but a breakout and consolidation of the price below 1.1583 could trigger a decline to 1.1550.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1587
• Res: 1.1613
• Note: Look for buys from 1.1587 with confirmation. A break below may trigger a drop to 1.1550.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3235
• Prev. Close: 1.3237
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02 %

Despite the OBR’s downgrade of the UK’s 2025 growth expectations, the budget was generally well-received by markets. Many experts believe weak growth prospects will eventually weigh on GBP, while sterling’s current strength is largely driven by US dollar weakness amid expectations of a Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3213, 1.3156, 1.3111, 1.3080
• Resistance levels: 1.3256

Technically, the British pound is in a bullish medium-term trend and on Wednesday reached the resistance level of 1.3256, where previously opened purchases began to be fixed. The price is now forming a flat accumulation with boundaries of 1.3213-1.3256. For buy deals, we are waiting for a bullish initiative from 1.3213. A breakout and consolidation of the price below 1.3213 will cause a decline to 1.3156.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3113
• Res: 1.3256
• Note: Look for buys from 1.3213 with confirmation. A break below may trigger a drop to 1.3156.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 156.43
• Prev. Close: 156.26
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10 %

On Friday, the yen held near 156.3 per USD, ending the week almost flat, supported by strong macro data. October industrial production and retail sales exceeded expectations, unemployment remained stable, and Tokyo core inflation came in above prognoses. This strengthened expectations that the BoJ may begin raising rates in the coming months. Meanwhile, Japan’s Cabinet approved a new stimulus package worth ¥21.3 trillion, with at least ¥11.5 trillion to be financed through additional bond issuance.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 155.73, 155.00
• Resistance levels: 156.26, 157.11, 157.87

Technically, price is consolidating in a narrowing triangle. Liquidity is tightening, signaling an impending breakout. For buys, wait for an impulsive breakout above the triangle. If no breakout occurs, price may continue trading within the triangle until week’s end. No optimal sell entries at present.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 155.73
• Res: 157.11
• Note: Look for buys after an impulsive breakout from the narrowing triangle.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 4164
• Prev. Close: 4159
• % chg. over the last day: +0.12%

On Friday, gold rose to $4,190/oz, nearing a five‑week high. The main driver was growing investor confidence in a December Fed rate cut. Additional support came from reports that Kevin Hassett, considered the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell, aligns with President Trump’s preference for lower rates. The probability of a 25 bp Fed cut in December now exceeds 80%, compared to about 30% a week ago. Markets also see the chance of three more cuts by the end of 2026.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 4167, 4145, 4108, 4031, 4007, 3966
• Resistance levels: 4210, 4246, 4379

On Friday’s Asian session, the price impulsively broke above 4167, opening the path to 4210. Buys can be considered from EMA lines or the broken 4167 level, but with confirmation from a buyer reaction. No optimal sell entries at present.

Alternative scenario:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4145
• Res: 4210
• Note: For buy deals, consider 4167 or EMA lines with confirmation. Profit target: 4210.