Markets opened the week under conditions that seemed like the plot of a political thriller just a week ago. The events of the weekend of February 28-March 1, 2026, completely redrew the financial map of the world. Despite the traditional importance of the NFP report (US labor market) this Friday, it is now taking a back seat. At stake are global energy security and the stability of world trade.
What Happened?
The situation developed rapidly, escalating from local clashes to regional collapse:
1. Elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader
Reports confirmed that Ali Khamenei was killed in a targeted coalition strike in Tehran. The event represents a political decapitation scenario, increasing the probability of fragmented command-and-control inside Iran and elevating the risk of asymmetric retaliation by the IRGC.
2. Attacks on Saudi Energy Infrastructure
Iran responded with large-scale drone and missile attacks targeting facilities operated by Saudi Aramco, including storage sites near the Abqaiq oil facility. While full damage assessments are pending, even partial disruption significantly increases the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.
3. Disruption of Gulf Aviation Hubs
Major transit hubs, including Dubai International Airport and Hamad International Airport, faced operational paralysis. Beyond aviation, this represents a shock to Europe-Asia logistics flows.
4. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz
The IRGC announced the suspension of maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Even if enforcement proves partial rather than absolute, insurance premia, freight rates, and tanker hesitancy can materially reduce effective supply.
The Oil Market: Why Is $100 Not the Limit, but Also Not a Guarantee?
Simple logic dictates buying oil when the strait is closed. But many overlook important factors:
- An energy stranglehold on China
By destabilizing the region, the US is striking at Beijing’s Achilles heel. Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are key suppliers of oil to China. Blocking the strait and controlling Venezuelan ports means that a significant amount of China’s oil imports are at risk. China is one of the leading importers of oil (70% of which is imported). This is not only about rising prices, but also about the risk of a slowdown in Chinese factories, which will hit the Australian dollar (AUD) and Asian indices.
However:
- China holds strategic petroleum reserves.
- Russian pipeline flows remain outside Hormuz exposure.
- Partial rerouting via Red Sea pipelines may mitigate the impact.
The real risk is not immediate shortages, but rising marginal supply costs and deteriorating trade balances, which could pressure CNH and commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
- The OPEC+ and Strategic Reserves Factor
Oil reaching $100 is plausible. However, growth to $150-200 per barrel is only possible if:
- confirmed physical supply destruction;
- prolonged shipping disruption;
- failed coordinated intervention.
Mitigating factors:
- The US prints SPR: The release of millions of barrels from strategic reserves could temporarily saturate the market.
- OPEC+ maneuver: Saudi Arabia and the UAE, despite attacks on their refineries, may announce the redirection of flows through land pipelines to the Red Sea. If the market believes in the “detour,” the risk premium will quickly disappear.
Markets will price not the announcement of closure, but actual export data, tanker tracking, and insurance spreads.
How to Track Tankers (Oil & LNG) in Real Time?
If the strait is blocked, you need to see how many ships are anchored and how many are trying to pass through. Free and semi-free tools:
- MarineTraffic: The most popular service. It allows you to see a color-coded map of the world (oil tankers are usually red). Life hack: Use the “Vessels in Area” filter to see the cluster of ships at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz.
- VesselFinder: Similar to MarineTraffic. Often, updates satellite AIS (Automatic Identification System) data faster in the free versions.
02/03/2026 – Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
The Aviation Sector Came Under Pressure
Shares in airlines (Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Delta) and manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus) opened with a sharp downward gap on Monday. The sector found itself in a tight spot:
- Rising costs: The surge in jet fuel prices (a derivative of oil) is instantly burning through carriers’ margins.
- Route closures: The blockade of the skies over the Gulf is forcing planes to fly around Central Asia or Africa, which increases travel time and sharply increases fuel consumption.
- Falling demand: Geopolitical fears are causing tourists and business travelers to cancel their reservations en masse.
Scenario prognosis for traders
Scenario 1: Escalation
If the conflict enters a protracted phase with ground operations in Iran:
- Gold (XAU/USD): Gold breaks to new highs. This is the only asset that has no ceiling in the context of a global conflict threat.
- Oil: Test $100 and above, despite reserve interventions.
- Currencies: The US dollar (USD) and the Swiss franc (CHF) will become the strong safe-haven currencies. It should be noted that the US is energy independent, unlike the EU and Asia. The Canadian dollar (CAD) received support as a currency strongly correlated with oil.
Scenario 2: De-escalation
If the coalition quickly establishes military control over the strait and suppresses missile launch sites:
- Oil: Sharp sell-off to pre-conflict levels (67-68)
- US and EU Indices: Rapid recovery. Traders should look for entry points in the technology sector, which fell along with the market.
- Currencies: The USD will begin to weaken as the need for protection disappears. This will strengthen risk assets (euro, British pound).
Stagflation Risk: The Real Structural Threat
The most dangerous outcome is not oil at $100, but oil at $100 combined with slowing global growth.
High energy + disrupted logistics + tightening financial conditions = stagflation dynamics.
In that environment:
- Gold benefits from uncertainty.
- Value may outperform growth.
- Bond volatility dominates cross-asset correlations.
Conclusion for Traders
Trade the facts, not the headlines. This week, the market will be extremely sensitive to any news about “tanker corridors” and statements from Beijing. If you see that gold has stopped rising amid new explosions, this is a sure sign that the market has already “priced in” all the negative news.
Strategy:
- Prioritize gold on conflict escalations, but maintain tight stops to navigate sharp, volatile pullbacks.
- Short US stock indices during relief rallies as the broader market rotates out of “risk-on” assets.
- Target short positions on major pairs against the USD, leveraging the Greenback’s role as a safe haven during geopolitical strife.
- Execute oil buys upon further escalation, while remaining vigilant regarding OPEC+ interventions or Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases.
- Fade airline rebounds as long as Persian Gulf airspace remains restricted and regional hubs are compromised.
- Monitor the yuan (CNH) as a primary signal; any significant devaluation serves as a leading indicator of a global economic slowdown.