When we look at a trader’s financial calendar, we usually see macroeconomic releases, central bank decisions, corporate earnings reports, and holidays such as Christmas or New Year’s Eve. We think: these are all the events that can affect the market. But in practice, the market often behaves strangely, as if someone forgot to tell traders important news. At such moments, volatility increases, liquidity falls, and impulses seem inexplicable.
The answer to this phenomenon lies in the existence of a “shadow calendar” – a set of events that critically influence market behavior but remain behind the scenes for most retail traders. There are many such events, but we will examine the main “invisible” factors that everyone who clicks the ‘Buy’ or “Sell” button should be aware of.
- Blackout periods: when buybacks disappear
One of the most underestimated reasons for falling liquidity and rising volatility is corporate blackout periods. A few weeks before the publication of quarterly reports, companies are prohibited from buying back their own shares on the open market. This is a regulatory requirement designed to prevent manipulation.
Sounds boring and technical? In fact, it is a time bomb for the market. The fact is that corporate buybacks have become one of the largest sources of demand for stocks in recent years. S&P 500 companies buy back hundreds of billions of dollars worth of shares annually. This flow of money supports indices, smooths out drawdowns, and provides liquidity.
And then comes the blackout. It usually begins 3-4 weeks before reporting and continues for several days after. As a result, the most powerful buyer leaves the market for a month. The result? Stocks, and therefore stock indices, become more volatile, declines become deeper, and rebounds become weaker. This is especially noticeable at the end of the quarter, when hundreds of companies enter the blackout period simultaneously. January, April, July, and October are classic months when the market can unexpectedly “crash” without any apparent macroeconomic reasons. Everyone is watching the news, looking for drivers, when in fact a regular buyer who accounts for 20-30% of the average daily volume has simply evaporated.
For traders, this means one simple thing: during periods of widespread blackouts, you need to be more cautious with long positions and expect drawdowns to be more aggressive than usual. It is also an excellent time for those who trade volatility – the VIX often rises during these periods.
- Holidays that change everything
We all know about Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s. On these days, markets are either closed or operating on a reduced schedule, and no one is surprised by low trading volumes. But some holidays do not appear on the American calendar, yet have a dramatic impact on certain assets.
The Lunar New Year in China is a classic example. It is not just one day, but a whole week (sometimes two) when the Chinese economy practically comes to a standstill. Factories shut down, logistics are paralyzed, and traders and investors take a break. It would seem, what does this have to do with the financial markets?
Here’s what: China is the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. Copper, iron ore, nickel, aluminum, and even gold – all of this goes mainly there. When the Lunar New Year arrives, demand evaporates. Liquidity in metals falls, and prices can move illogically simply because there are no buyers. Why it happening?
- Liquidity washout: Huge Asian funds are going on vacation. The market is becoming “thin.” In a thin market, even a small order from a hedge fund in London can cause prices to move 1-2% in a minute. This is the time of “spikes” and “helicopters” that knock you off your feet.
- Physical demand: In China, it is customary to give gold as a gift. Demand for gold increases before the holidays and then freezes during them.
Note how volatility in metals has increased recently, especially in silver, before the Lunar New Year in 2026. What price fixing took place before that? Or look at what happened in 2025 with metals before the Lunar New Year. For a trader who trades metals, ignoring the Lunar New Year is like going outside in winter without a coat.
Another example is Ramadan in the Middle East. Oil markets may exhibit atypical behavior during this period, especially if major players in the region reduce their activity. Summer vacations in Europe (especially August) are another period when liquidity in European assets falls and volatility rises.
- Option expiration (Friday madness)
Every third Friday of the month, monthly options on indices and individual stocks expire. But the real magic happens on quarterly expirations, when several types of derivatives converge at once.
Imagine: billions of dollars in option positions are approaching their last day of life. Market makers who sold these options adjust their hedges throughout the week leading up to expiration. If the stock price approaches a major strike with large open interest, a real battle begins. Put option buyers want the price to fall below the strike, while call option holders want it to rise above it.
In the last hour of trading on the Friday of expiration, the phenomenon of “pinning” is often observed – the price literally sticks to a large strike. This is no accident. It results from market makers actively trading the underlying asset to maximize the number of options expiring out of the money.
How it looks on the chart:
The price can hit the same invisible wall all day long. You draw levels, wait for a breakout, and the price bounces back as if glued. This is large banks hedging their positions, keeping the market where they want it.
Particularly dangerous: Triple Witching is the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. On these days, volatility in the last hours of trading in New York resembles a roller coaster.
- Tariff policy or unexpected duty cancellations
The modern world of trade is becoming less like a predictable machine and more like chaotic improvisation. This factor has become particularly prominent with Trump’s return to the US presidency: tariffs, trade wars, sanctions, sudden reversals of court decisions – all events that do not appear on the economic calendar but can turn the market around 180 degrees in a matter of minutes. Particularly interesting are moments when courts cancel or suspend tariffs.
Example1: The court cancels part of the previously imposed duties on copper – the metals market reacts instantly, although the news did not make it into the economic calendar of most traders.
Example2: April 9, 2025 – Trump confirmed a 90-day delay on individual tariffs for most countries. As a result, the indices posted their best growth since 2008.
By the way: on February 20, 2026, markets will be watching the US Supreme Court, which may rule on the US president’s use of emergency powers to impose broad tariffs. Although this event is not marked in economic calendars, investors perceive it as potentially significant: most participants expect a decision against the administration. A potential court decision to cancel some tariffs could put strong pressure on the dollar index and give momentum to stock indices.
- Rebalancing of indices and funds
At the end of each month (and especially at the end of each quarter), large pension and investment funds reorganize their portfolios. They have strict rules: for example, the portfolio must contain exactly 60% stocks and 40% bonds. If stocks have risen sharply over the month, their share has become, say, 65%. To return to the rules, the fund must sell the excess 5% of its stock holdings and buy bonds.
Why it matters: In the last 2-3 business days of the month, the market often moves “against logic.” The news is good, the economy is growing, but the stock market is falling. Why? Simply because the robots of the world’s largest funds are simultaneously executing sell orders to balance their accounts. Particularly powerful movements occur during the last hour of trading on the last day of the quarter – this is known as “marking the close,” when funds try to lock in the prices they need for their reports. Volatility can be extreme at these times.
Another invisible driver is the periodic rebalancing of major indices and ETFs. These are technical events that most traders ignore, but they can create powerful movements in individual stocks.
When a company is added to the S&P 500, index funds are required to buy its shares, and in huge volumes. The demand is artificial and concentrated, usually within a single trading day or week. The result? The stock can rise by 5-10% purely on a technical basis, without any change in its fundamentals.
The opposite situation is exclusion from the index. Tesla has been on the verge of exclusion from various ESG indices several times, and each time this has put pressure on its share price. Funds that track these indices are required to sell, which creates a wave of supply.
- Geopolitical risks outside the calendar
Finally, the most unpredictable factor is geopolitical events, which have no date on the calendar but can turn markets upside down in seconds. Military conflicts, terrorist attacks, political crises, and unexpected resignations of leaders – all create waves of volatility that are impossible to prepare for in advance.
But even here there are patterns. For example, election periods in large countries are usually accompanied by increased volatility in the weeks leading up to the vote and sharp movements immediately after the results are announced. Referendums, changes of government, constitutional crises – all of these need to be kept on the radar.
A recent example is the victory of the new Japanese Prime Minister’s party in the parliamentary elections. The party won a majority, allowing it to pursue its planned expansionary policy. The Japanese index soared after the vote results and continued to rise for several days.
It is also worth keeping an eye on meetings of international organizations such as the G7, G20, and OPEC+. These meetings often take place without a public agenda, but the decisions made at them can affect oil, currencies, and commodity assets.
How to work with the shadow calendar?
- First, start tracking. Make a separate list of dates: quarterly option expirations, blackout periods for key companies in your portfolio, major holidays in Asia, index rebalancing dates.
- Second, adapt your trading strategy. During periods of low liquidity, avoid aggressive entries, widen stop losses, and reduce position sizes. Before major option expirations, be prepared for unexpected movements and don’t be surprised if the price “sticks” to a round level.
- Third, use this knowledge to find opportunities. If you know that companies will return to buybacks after the blackout period ends, this may be a good time to go long shortly before the buyback programs resume.
Final thoughts
The shadow calendar is not a conspiracy theory. It is simply a set of events that influence the market through liquidity flows and supply and demand, but that remain outside the scope of standard information sources. Traders who take these factors into account gain a significant advantage.
The market is never truly random. Behind every movement are cash flows, and behind every lull is a lack of participants. Learn to see what is hidden from most, and your trading will reach a new level.